What Does Impeachment Actually Mean?
In order to get a better understanding of the whole Donald Trump impeachment trial, we should better understand the essence and fundamentals of this political process. Due to the structure of the United States Congress, there is a lower chamber of congress – the House of Representatives, and an upper chamber – the Senate. Both chambers are involved in the process of impeachment which basically starts with charges of presidential misconduct from the lower chamber of Congress. It is a complex process due to the seriousness of the situation and that’s why you can check the following video for more clarity on the situation:
The Odds of Trump’s Impeachment
Believe it or not, there are certain betting sites which give opportunities for betting on the Trump impeachment process. The US President has gotten himself in quite a severe situation, accompanied by charges which he claims is “a hoax”. Due to the scandal with the Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky, those odds have increased not in favour of the US President. But what really happened?
Around September of 2019, there has been information that Trump has used his political position to force President Zelensky to provide him with compromising information about the primary candidate of the Democratic Party for the 2020 Presidential elections – Joe Biden and his son Hunter. And what is the cost of that information for Ukraine? According to BBC’s impeachment article, “The Donald” blocked but later released a military aid package worth close to $400 million, using it as a bargaining chip in the process. If that information is true, this would be a second scandal around the last two presidential elections, which would truly lower the chances of Trump being reelected. Speaking of chances, let’s see what the odds say, following the scandal:
- October 2019: After the scandal, the impeachment odds increase and reach +110
- November 2019: Public impeachment hearings begin – impeachment chances reach 67.7 %
- December 2019: The vote for impeachment is approved – chances reach 90%
- January 2020: The impeachment trial is scheduled for 21.01 – odds reach a long +2500
As you can see, the chances of Trump impeachment resulted in an expected outcome in the end. As of January 22nd 2020, Trump has been officially impeached, becoming only the third president in the history of the United States to face such consequences. However, the saga continues with a much more valuable question at hand – will Donald Trump be removed from office?
Trump Getting Impeached Fully – In or Out of Office?
If we look at it from a different perspective, Trump has lost the battle, but not the war. Although the House of Representatives has successfully impeached the president, it is yet to be decided whether His Excellency will be removed from office or whether he will stay in at least until the next presidential election is decided. However, there are certain facts in regard to the chances of Trump getting impeached that might provide the needed answers to the probable outcome.
The Donald Trump Impeachment Trial Explained
Although The Washington Post have provided a more detailed explanation on what’s next for Donald Trump, we’ll try to summarise the most important facts for you. As earlier mentioned, the next step is a Senate trial where both parties will have official hearings in regards to arguments and evidence. Each side will have 24 hours over a period of three days to present their thesis, followed by a series of questions that can be presented only in a written form.
The last steps of the trial include voting for two predefined scenarios. The first one includes voting for an extended trial where witnesses will be summoned. In the case of Trump’s trial, there are four witnesses which can be questioned – advisers John Bolton and Robert Blair, chief of staff Mick Mulvaney and the top White House budget official Michael Duffey. However, if the Senate decides to end the trial immediately, this will mean that a vote for the immediate removal of Trump will be initiated.
What Happens if Trump Is Removed from Office?
This will be a precedent in the history of the United States, as the two already impeached presidents – Bill Clinton in 1998 and Andrew Johnson in 1868, have all been left in office. In order for the worst-case scenario to happen for the president, 67 people from the Senate need to vote against him. This scenario is unlikely to happen, given the fact that 53 out of the 100 Senate members are Republicans – the party behind Trump, 45 are Democrats and 2 are independent. But let’s assume for a moment that the US president is indeed removed from office.
Given the fact that Trump’s Tweets move the stock market, this may result in a slight decline on certain important indexes such as the Dow-Jones Industrial Index, NASDAQ, S&P500 and more. Furthermore, with all of the tension around the world, often involving the USA as being on one side of the controversy, this impeachment trial will increase the already compromised political image of the nation. Regardless of the outcome which is expected soon to be determined, one thing is for sure – a severe political crisis awaits America.
FAQ’s Around the Donal Trump Impeachment Trial
With such a serious and ongoing trial for the US president, many people have lots of questions that need proper addressing. In order to be as informative as possible, we’ve gathered the most frequent queries below which you might want to check out!