The Odds of Living to 100

Average life expectancy varies considerably across the various regions of the UK. In this article we compile data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to show the odds of living to the age of 100 for each of the United Kingdom’s 432 administrative regions. See the odds for your region in our interactive map of the UK below.
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Comedian Bob Hope once joked, “You know you’re getting old when the candles cost more than the cake.” But what do Bob Hope, actor Kirk Douglas, and magician John Calvert have in common? They all lived to the ripe old age of 100. Advancements in healthcare and changes in the way we work, live and eat mean we’re living longer than ever before in the UK. So what are your odds of becoming a centenarian? We wanted to find out how much of an influence where you live has on your chances of living to 100. It continues our series – previously we’ve looked at the odds of getting divorced, and the odds of experiencing a natural disaster.

Below is a detailed map of Great Britain and Northern Ireland with 432 administrative districts; we calculated the odds of living to 100 in each of these based on the Office of National Statistics (ONS) data. Hover over it to find out what percentage of people in each district are forecast to live for a century and receive that famous birthday message from the Queen! You can also zoom in and out using the icons in the bottom right.

Interactive Map Showing the Odds of Living to 100 Across the UK

On average, people in the United Kingdom have roughly a one in six chance of living to 100 (or a 17.3% chance). The map shows how residents in the south of England have the best odds of getting a birthday letter from the Queen. However, there are also pockets in the north of England like Harrogate and Hambleton, where roughly one in five are likely to become a centenarian. At the other end of the spectrum, residents of northwest Scotland are least likely to live for ten decades. People in the other two constituent countries, Wales and Northern Ireland, have better odds than Scotland but worse odds than England.

If you zoom into the map, you’ll see that the residents of Kensington and Chelsea have the best odds of living to 100. 20.7% of the small, glamorous West London borough are predicted to live to that ripe old age. In contrast, the citizens of Glasgow City have the worst odds of living to 100. 13.5% of people in the centre of Scotland’s largest city are forecast to live to 100.

The Odds of Living to 100 in 432 Districts Across Great Britain and Northern Ireland

Let’s dive into the table above. We’ve split it into three sections: the average odds of living to 100, the odds for women, and the odds for men. That’s because life expectancy differs for the two sexes. Age only goes up, but scroll down for more fun facts on the topic of reaching 100!

  • Does politics keep you young? Men in Westminster have the best odds of living to 100 in the whole of the UK (18.2 out of 100). Life expectancy for men in Westminster is 84.7 years!
  • Size isn’t everything: women in Kensington and Chelsea, London’s smallest borough, have the best odds of living to 100 (23.6 out of 100), thanks to an impressive life expectancy of 87.9 years!
  • A healthy Hart will help you to enjoy a long, fulfilling life: residents of Hampshire’s Hart district have the best odds of living to 100 outside of London (1 in 5 odds).
  • Welcome to the Garden of Eden! People in Cumbria’s Eden district, which is located in the northwest of England, have the highest odds of living to 100 outside of southern England (19.3 out of 100).
  • English people have the best odds of living to 100: out of the top 157 districts, 156 out of these are located in the UK’s largest constituent country.
  • The outlier is Monmouthshire, Wales, which places 47th nationwide in terms of odds of living to 100. Therefore, the citizens of Monmouthshire have the best odds of becoming centenarian outside of England (18.7 out of 100).
  • Ever wondered about the benefits of island life? The residents of the Shetland Islands have the best odds of living to 100 in Scotland (17.8 out of 100). Life expectancy for women is 83.2 years, and for men, it is 80.6 years.
  • In Northern Ireland, the people of Lisburn and Castlereagh, which lie south of Belfast, have the best odds of living to 100 (17.7 out of 100). Life expectancy for women is 83.3 years compared to 80.3 years for men.

How We Created the Odds of Living to 100

The data used for this research was taken from the Office of National Statistics (ONS). The ONS is part of the UK Statistics Authority, which is a non-ministerial department and reports to the UK Parliament. The ONS provided data on life expectancy for men and women in 432 administrative districts across England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales.

Based on this data, combined with historical life expectancy information also from the ONS (see All data related to Past and projected period and cohort life tables: 2020-based, UK, 1981 to 2070), the research team estimated the average odds of living to 100 for the average man and woman in each of the administrative districts. The research was conducted in Q1 2022.

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